Hurricane update: as much as a quarter of NYC is expected to be in the floodplain

Posted on June 11, 2013 by anric

20130611-075434.jpg

As much as a quarter of New York City’s land area is expected to be in the floodplain by midcentury, doubling the number of residents who could be severely affected by future storms, according to a report released Tuesday by Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration that recommends billions of dollars in spending.

“As bad as Sandy was, future storms could be even worse,” Mr. Bloomberg said during a major policy speech Tuesday afternoon, according to an excerpt of his remarks released by City Hall on Monday.

Last December, in the wake of superstorm Sandy, the mayor charged a panel of top officials the task of producing a long-term plan to address the risks that climate change poses on the city’s infrastructure, buildings and neighborhoods. On Tuesday, Mr. Bloomberg released that report and outlined a series of recommendations to better prepare the five boroughs for the future.

While City Hall aides said they consider the report to be a comprehensive, highly technical analysis of the city’s vulnerabilities, it was unclear on Monday how much the administration can do to address these issues before the mayor steps down on Dec. 31. On the campaign trail, the candidates hoping to succeed Mr. Bloomberg have been discussing the city’s response to Sandy and their own plans if elected.

Because of rising temperatures and sea levels, even a storm that isn’t as large as Sandy could potentially be more destructive, Mr. Bloomberg reports.

“We expect that by midcentury, up to one-quarter of all New York City’s land area, where 800,000 residents live today, will be in the floodplain, If we do nothing, almost a 10th of our waterfront—more than 40 miles or so—could see flooding on a regular basis, just during normal high tides.”

The Oct. 29 storm resulted in widespread flooding and power outages, and the shuttering of the city’s subway system.

The total death toll related to the storm was 117, with more than 40 in New York City. About half of the storm’s drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in the city’s mandatory evacuation zone.

Anric Blatt, Global Fund Exchange Group

Posted in Climate Change, Investments, Policy, Weather | Tagged Climate Change, consequences, global warming, Hurricane Sandy, sea level rise | Leave a comment

Food security and world trade policy: How they are linked

Posted on June 10, 2013 by anric

Global food security is possible when food can move freely from areas of surplus to areas of demand

Free global agriculture trade is critically important to addressing food insecurity. The world will raise the most food the most economically and in the most environmentally responsible way when farmers plant the right crops for their local climate and soils using the right technology, then trade with others for the benefit of all. By encouraging free trade in a fair, rigorously enforced system, governments can help ensure that world food production thrives and that food surpluses reach areas of food deficit.

This Cargill infographic demonstrates the importance of world food flows – and the benefits that ensue when food moves freely from nation to nation.

Posted in Agriculture, Scarce Resources, Transportation, Water | Tagged food security | 1 Comment

1 in a 100 year flooding happens again – time to wake up to reality of climate change yet

Posted on June 10, 2013 by anric

Says it all, right?

The Danube river is hitting record highs, thousands are being forced from their homes, and dozens of people have lost their lives.

This is the second time in just 11 years that Central Europe has had ’100 year’ floods. Please SHARE if you think it’s time for the world to wake up — our climate has changed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/world/europe/in-flooded-areas-of-europe-familiar-feelings-and-new-questions.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22811172

Here’s a more recent update on the situation:   http://www.trust.org/item/20130609192459-al52k/

 

Posted in - Quotes, Climate Change, Weather | 1 Comment

Creating a Sustainable Food Future: Reducing Food Loss and Waste

Posted on June 7, 2013 by anric

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that 32 percent of all food produced in the world was lost or wasted in 2009. This estimate is based on weight. When converted into calories, global food loss and waste amounts to approximately 24 percent of all food produced. Essentially, one out of every four food calories intended for people is not ultimately consumed by them.

Download this infographic

Food loss and waste have many negative economic and environmental impacts. Economically, they represent a wasted investment that can reduce farmers’ incomes and increase consumers’ expenses. Environmentally, food loss and waste inflict a host of impacts, including unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions and inefficiently used water and land, which in turn can lead to diminished natural ecosystems and the services they provide.

Big inefficiencies suggest big savings opportunities. We estimate that if the current rate of food loss and waste were cut in half―from 24 percent to 12 percent―by the year 2050, the world would need about 1,314 trillion kilocalories (kcal) less food per year than it would in the business-as-usual global food requirements scenario described in The Great Balancing Act, the first installment of this World Resources Report working paper series. That savings–1,314 trillion kcal–is roughly 22 percent of the 6,000 trillion kcal per year gap between food available today and that needed in 2050. Thus, reducing food loss and waste could be one of the leading global strategies for achieving a sustainable food future.

In this paper, the authorsprofile a subset of approaches to reducing food loss and waste that experts suggest are particularly practical and cost-effective, that could be implemented relatively quickly, and that could achieve quick gains. We also recommend a number of cross-cutting strategies to further galvanize commitment to reducing food loss and waste.

 To learn more about the series and sign up to receive updates, visit the World Resources Report website.

The World Resources Institute (WRI) will dedicate its next flagship World Resources Report (WRR), Creating a Sustainable Food Future, to exploring how we can achieve the “Great Balancing Act.” We’ll roll out a series of working papers over the next year that will set the foundation for and culminate in the World Resources Report 2013-2014: Creating a Sustainable Food Future.

Each installment of the WRR will take a detailed look at a potential solution that could help achieve a sustainable food future, creating a “menu” of practical, scalable strategies. Some menu items reduce projected growth in consumption, such as decreasing food loss and waste. Other menu items increase food production, such as restoring degraded lands back into agricultural productivity. No item on the menu can achieve a sustainable food future by itself, and the relevance of items will vary between countries and food chains. But the combination of solutions should help feed the world while contributing to poverty reduction, gender equity, ecosystem conservation, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and sustainable freshwater management.

INSTALLMENT 1

How can the world adequately feed more than 9 billion people by 2050 in a manner that advances economic development and reduces pressure on the environment? This is one of the paramount questions the world faces over the next four decades. The Great Balancing Actseeks to start answering this question by exploring the scope of the challenge and proposing a menu of potential solutions. This working paper is the first in a series that forms the foundation of the World Resources Report 2013-14: Creating a Sustainable Food Future.

Download the report  PDF, 1.4MB
View a narrated or static powerpoint presentation on this paper.

INSTALLMENT 2

About 24 percent of all calories currently produced for human consumption are lost or wasted. This paper examines the implications of this amount of loss and waste, profiles a number of approaches for reducing it, and puts forth five recommendations for how to move forward on this issue.

Download the report PDF, 1.1MB

Posted in Agriculture, Scarce Resources, Water | 1 Comment

Singapore’s water companies aim to quench China’s $850 billion thirst

Posted on June 3, 2013 by admin

(Reuters) – Water companies in Singapore are attracting big-name investors as they profit from exporting their expertise to China, which plans to spend $850 billion over the next decade to improve its scarce and polluted water supplies.

Singapore is a hub for water technology because of its own concerns about water security. With few domestic freshwater resources of its own, the city-state has been trying to reduce its reliance on imports from neighboring Malaysia, where politicians have in the past threatened to turn off the taps.

Since 2006, the number of companies in Singapore’s water sector has doubled to about 100 and S$470 million ($371.2 million) has been committed to fund water research, government data shows. Over the same period, Singapore-based water companies secured more than 100 international projects worth close to S$9 billion.

Singapore has been experimenting with reservoirs, recycled water known as NEWater, and desalination as it aims to become self-sufficient in water by 2061, when a water supply agreement with Malaysia expires.

“Singapore should be one of the world’s dominant players in water. It should be the Silicon Valley of water,” said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and owns shares of Singapore’s biggest listed water treatment company, Hyflux Ltd (HYFL.SI).

Hyflux, which has a market capitalization of S$1.2 billion, signed two agreements in April for projects in China. The company is known for its membrane technology used for ultrafiltration, a process to separate certain dirty or harmful particles in water.

Hyflux’s chief executive, Olivia Lum, is the biggest shareholder with 32.4 percent as of March, while Matthews International Capital Management LLC and Mondrian Investment Partners Ltd have a combined 14.2 percent of deemed interest, according to its latest annual report.

U.S. private equity firm KKR & Co LP (KKR.N) invested $40 million in United Envirotech Ltd (UNIT.SI) earlier this year after subscribing to $113.8 million of its convertible bonds in 2011.

The company is listed and based in Singapore, but most of its operations are in China, where it derives more than 90 percent of its revenue. It designs and builds water treatment plants, on top of providing services to China’s chemical, petrochemical and industrial park sectors, all of which are heavy water users.

United Envirotech, whose “membrane bioreactor technology” combines membrane separation with biological wastewater treatment, said on May 28 its net profit for the full year ended March 2013 had nearly tripled from a year earlier.

The company is in talks with some investors who have expressed interest in buying a stake, a spokeswoman said, adding that Singapore is attractive to the firm because of its status as a financial centre and its ongoing growth as a “global hydrohub”.

“The root of the whole commitment to grow the water industry lies with the Singapore water story,” said Goh Chee Kiong, executive director of cleantech at Singapore’s Economic Development Board. “Singapore has been very vulnerable when it comes to water for many decades, therefore we view water as a strategic resource and asset.”

ON THE RADAR

With the world’s population hovering at around 7 billion, investors are betting on soaring demand for clean water not just for people, but also to help fuel industries ranging from semiconductors and pharmaceuticals to petrochemicals and agriculture.

“Water treatment companies have not been on the radar for a while, but now investors are increasingly looking at companies that are undervalued or have yet to realize their potential,” said Carey Wong, an analyst at OCBC Investment Research.

In the last 12 months, the Thomson Reuters Global Water and Other Utilities Index .TRXFLDGLPUWATR has jumped around 20 percent.

In Singapore, shares of United Envirotech have surged more than 170 percent over the same period, outperforming the 19 percent gain in the benchmark Straits Times Index .FTSTI. SIIC Environment Holdings Ltd (SIIC.SI), Memstar Technology Ltd (MEMS.SI) and HanKore Environment Tech Group Ltd (HETG.SI) have risen in the range of 33-67 percent.

However, Hyflux shares have underperformed the index in the past year. CIMB Research said in a report that the company’s project win rate has to accelerate so its share price can pick up. Its valuation also appears “fairly priced” compared to its major Asian peers, CIMB said.

Moya Asia Ltd (MOYA.SI) and Sound Global Ltd (SOGL.SI), both of which reported weak quarterly earnings recently, have lagged the index too.

Conglomerates Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCIL.SI) and Keppel Corp Ltd (KPLM.SI) also have some water-related businesses.

CHINA BOUND

Many companies have their sights set on China where, despite spending 700 billion yuan ($114 billion) on water infrastructure over the five years to 2010, much of the water remains undrinkable, a situation that has led to mounting discontent across the country.

China’s environment ministry said 43 percent of the locations it was monitoring in 2011 contained water not fit even for human contact.

United Envirotech said stricter discharge limits imposed by the Chinese government and water shortages in various parts of the country are pushing up demand for water treatment services.

Chinese players like China Everbright International Ltd (0257.HK) and Beijing Enterprises Water Group Ltd (0371.HK) may put up a tough fight, especially for the lower-end water treatment projects, due to their ability to keep costs down and their local network, said DBS Vickers analyst Tan Ai Teng.

Scinor Water Ltd recently received financing from CLSA Capital Partners’ Clean Resources Asia Growth Fund and venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers to expand the Chinese company’s membrane manufacturing capacity and products.

“There are going to be huge fortunes made in China on water because China has a staggering water problem and they know it. They are spending a lot of money to solve it,” said Rogers.

Posted in Investments, Water | Leave a comment

Alternative energy will no longer be alternative

Posted on May 31, 2013 by anric

“Renewable” power will soon start to be seen as normal.

Wind farms already provide 2% of the world’s electricity, and their capacity is doubling every three years. If that growth rate is maintained, wind power will overtake nuclear’s contribution to the world’s energy accounts in about a decade. Though it still has its opponents, wind is thus already a grown-up technology. But it is in the field of solar energy, currently only a quarter of a percent of the planet’s electricity supply, but which grew 86% last year, that the biggest shift of attitude will be seen, for sunlight has the potential to disrupt the electricity market completely.

The underlying cause of this disruption is a phenomenon that solar’s supporters call Swanson’s law, in imitation of Moore’s law of transistor cost. Moore’s law suggests that the size of transistors (and also their cost) halves every 18 months or so. Swanson’s law, named after Richard Swanson, the founder of SunPower, a big American solar-cell manufacturer, suggests that the cost of the photovoltaic cells needed to generate solar power falls by 20% with each doubling of global manufacturing capacity. The upshot (see chart) is that the modules used to make solar-power plants now cost less than a dollar per watt of capacity. Power-station construction costs can add $4 to that, but these, too, are falling as builders work out how to do the job better. And running a solar power station is cheap because the fuel is free.

Coal-fired plants, for comparison, cost about $3 a watt to build in the United States, and natural-gas plants cost $1. But that is before the fuel to run them is bought. In sunny regions such as California, then, photovoltaic power could already compete without subsidy with the more expensive parts of the traditional power market, such as the natural-gas-fired “peaker” plants kept on stand-by to meet surges in demand. Moreover, technological developments that have been proved in the laboratory but have not yet moved into the factory mean Swanson’s law still has many years to run.

Fossil-fuel-powered electricity will not be pushed aside quickly. Fracking, a technological breakthrough which enables natural gas to be extracted cheaply from shale, means that gas-fired power stations, which already produce a fifth of the world’s electricity, will keep the pressure on wind and solar to get better still. But even if natural gas were free, no Swanson’s law-like process applies to the plant required to turn it into electricity. Nuclear power is not a realistic alternative. It is too unpopular and the capital costs are huge. And coal’s days seem numbered. In America, the share of electricity generated from coal has fallen from almost 80% in the mid-1980s to less than a third in April 2012, and coal-fired power stations are closing in droves.

It may take longer to make the change in China and India, where demand for power is growing almost insatiably, and where the grids to take that power from windy and sunny places to the cities are less developed than in rich countries. In the end, though, they too will change as the alternatives become normal, and what was once normal becomes quaintly old-fashioned.

Continue reading this excellent article from the Economist

 

Posted in Clean Energy, Electricity, Energy Efficiency, Gas, Investments, Nuclear, Solar, Wind | Tagged Solar Energy, solar power, Swanson effect | 1 Comment

Are We Really One Year Away From Global Riots

Posted on May 30, 2013 by anric

We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say. Brian Merchant lays out an interesting connection.

What’s the number one reason we riot? The plausible, justifiable motivations of trampled-upon humanfolk to fight back are many—poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement, etc—but the big one is more primal than any of the above. It’s hunger, plain and simple.

If there’s a single factor that reliably sparks social unrest, it’s food becoming too scarce or too expensive.

 In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead to worldwide unrest.

Pretty simple. Black dots are the food prices, red lines are the riots. In other words, whenever the UN’s food price index, which measures the monthly change in the price of a basket of food commodities, climbs above 210, the conditions ripen for social unrest around the world. CSI doesn’t claim that any breach of 210 immediately leads to riots, obviously; just that the probability that riots will erupt grows much greater. For billions of people around the world, food comprises up to 80% of routine expenses (for rich-world people like you and I, it’s like 15%). When prices jump, people can’t afford anything else; or even food itself. And if you can’t eat—or worse, your family can’t eat—you fight.


Continue to read Brian Merchant’s excellent blog posts by clicking here

Watch our quick video – 10 Reasons to Invest in Agriculture – Now by Anric Blatt

 

 

Posted in Agriculture, Commodities, Natural Resources, Policy, Scarce Resources, Water | Tagged Anric Blatt Agriculture Investor, food riots, global food crisis | 2 Comments

The Odds of Disaster: An Economist’s Warning on Global Warming

Posted on May 25, 2013 by anric

Are headlines trumpeting the fact that carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere have now passed the crucial 400 parts per million for the first time in something like three million years unduly alarmist? Or are they a timely warning?

The current CO2 concentration of 400 ppm is some 40 percent higher than anything that has been attained in the last 800,000 years. The glacial-interglacial cycles began some two and a half million years ago. Scientists estimate that a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm has not been attained for at least 3 million years. This rapid a change in CO2 concentrations has probably not occurred for tens of millions of years.

The point here is that we are undertaking a colossal planet-wide experiment of injecting CO2 into the atmosphere that goes extraordinarily further and faster than anything within the range of natural CO2 fluctuations for tens of millions of years. The result is a great deal of uncertainty about the possible outcomes of this experiment. The higher the concentrations of CO2, the further outside the range of normal fluctuations is the planet, and the more unsure are we about the consequences.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. It is by now (and for some considerable time has been) beyond any reasonable doubt that increased levels of atmospheric CO2 lead to increased average temperatures. What is still uncertain and the subject of legitimate debate is the magnitude of this effect: how much CO2 leads to how much warming?

What is even more scary, and maybe even catastrophic, is the speed at which we blew right past 400 ppm of CO2, with no visible end in sight — and what that might portend for ultimate global warming.

If we were to continue CO2 emissions up to an atmospheric concentration of 600 ppm of CO2, the IPCC formula translates into an ultimate average temperature change of 3.3 C (5.9 F) with a likely range between 1.1 C (2 F) and 5 C (8.9 F).

If we were to continue CO2 emissions to an atmospheric concentration of 800 ppm of CO2, the IPCC formula translates into an ultimate average temperature change of 4.5 C (8.2 F) with a likely range between 3 C (5.4 F) and 6.8 C (12.3 F).

The world has not seen this level of CO2 concentrations for some 50 million years, when crocodiles and palm trees thrived in the Arctic Circle, Greenland and Antarctica were ice-free, and sea levels were many thousands of feet higher than today.

Here are some questions we should be asking ourselves:

  • What will be the effects of higher temperatures on precipitation patterns?
  • Will monsoon rains be greatly altered?
  • What will happen to Indian or Bangladeshi agriculture?
  • Will dry places in Africa become even drier?
  • Will tropical storms intensify?
  • When will the ice sheets covering Greenland and West Antarctica begin to melt seriously, thereby sharply raising worldwide sea levels?
  • Will basic essential patterns of ocean circulation currents be changed?
  • Will the Amazon rain forest dry out or die back?
  • Will there be large-scale releases of currently contained CO2 and methane (an even more potent greenhouse gas) under melting permafrost, thereby accelerating the process of global warming itself?
  • What about the truly stupendous amounts of methane trapped inside the offshore continental shelves by low temperatures — might they start to become unstuck by higher ocean temperatures, thereby triggering a vicious global warming circle?
  • What will be the effects of large-scale rapid melting of ice in the Arctic Ocean?
  • What about the unknown unknowns we have not even thought of?

Paul Solman just held an excellent interview with Martin L. Weitzman, Professor of Economics at Harvard University that goes into greater detail and brings up some excellent points and analysis. Click here to read the full article. 

Posted in Climate Change, Water, Weather | Tagged Climate Change, CO2 concentration, global warming | 1 Comment

World Hunger Day – 28th May 2013

Posted on May 24, 2013 by nick

900 million to one billion, more than one eighth of the world’s population live in extreme hunger and poverty and exist on less than 80 pence ($1.20) a day. Thats one in every 8 people.

Hunger kills more people than AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined. Millions of women, men and children die each year because of chronic persistent hunger – TWO million are children.

Of the thousands of people who live in hunger and poverty, 10 percent are suffering from extreme famine.However, particularly whilst the focus of the world is on high profile crises, it is vital that we recognise that, even today, the 90 percent majority of those suffering with hunger and poverty are living in other parts of the world, not affected by famine, earthquake or flood, but because of the chronic persistent hunger that exists in the developing world, in particular, Africa, South Asia and Latin America.

Chronic, persistent hunger is not due merely to lack of food. It occurs when people lack opportunity to earn enough income, to be educated and gain skills, to meet basic health needs and have a voice in the decisions that affect their community.

World Hunger Day is about raising awareness of this situation. It is also about celebrating the achievements of millions of people who are already ending their own hunger and meeting their basic needs.

Here are three great Organizations that are making a difference that deserve y(our) support:

Related:  16 October 2013, FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) – World Food Day to  gives focus to World Food Day observances and helps increase understanding of problems and solutions in the drive to end hunger. “Sustainable Food Systems for Food Security and Nutrition” will be the focus of World Food Day in 2013.

 

Posted in Agriculture, Commodities, Water | Tagged hunger, poverty, world food day, World Hunger Day | Leave a comment

Wells dry – Fertile Plains Turn to Dust

Posted on May 22, 2013 by anric

Two years of extreme drought, during which farmers relied almost completely on groundwater, have brought the seriousness of the problem home. In 2011 and 2012, the Kansas Geological Survey reports, the average water level in the state’s portion of the aquifer dropped 4.25 feet — nearly a third of the total decline since 1996.

And that is merely the average. “I know my staff went out and re-measured a couple of wells because they couldn’t believe it,” said Lane Letourneau, a manager at the State Agriculture Department’s water resources division. “There was a 30-foot decline.”

Vast stretches of Texas farmland lying over the aquifer no longer support irrigation. In west-central Kansas, up to a fifth of the irrigated farmland along a 100-mile swath of the aquifer has already gone dry. In many other places, there no longer is enough water to supply farmers’ peak needs during Kansas’ scorching summers.

And when the groundwater runs out, it is gone for good. Refilling the aquifer would require hundreds, if not thousands, of years of rains.

Still wondering why we invest in agricultural equities, commodities and water ?

Related Video Post:  10 Reasons to Invest in AGriculture – NOW

 

Posted in - Quotes, Agriculture, Investments, Scarce Resources, Water | Leave a comment